Making Sense of Medical Science (MSMS)

The US just passed 120,000 deaths due to COVID-19. That happened in just five months and WITH quarantine measures in place. That is 3-4 times the number of deaths we see in an entire typical 18 month flu season WITHOUT quarantine measures. So, to those who try to brush this off as just another flu, I wish a pox on you (pun intended).

It is true, as many COVID-19 skeptics point out, that >97% of infected people survive the virus. But that was also true of the Spanish flu in 1918, which, in just 24 weeks, killed more people than were killed in the 10 total years of WWI and WWII combined. It is wise to view all the statistics rather than just cherry pick the ones you like.

At this time, COVID-19 is increasing in several Southern US states, so we are not out of the woods. It also is exploding in Central and South America, and India. Your humble blogger believes that Africa is not far behind.

Recent reports indicate that large cities in India, such as its modern financial capital of Mumbai, have been hammered by the virus. News reports talk of overwhelmed hospitals in Mumbai where the ICU beds stretch into hallways and new patients sleep on the floor while waiting a bed. It also appears that new hotspots are emerging in rural areas across India as people leave the big cities and head to their homes in the hinterland where there is less access to basic health care, let alone ICU beds and ventilators.

Brazil has passed the US in the disease rate and Peru and Mexico are not far behind. So much for hoping that the warm summer would retard the virus spread. Below is an aerial image of mass graves recently dug in Brazil to deal with COVID-19 fatalities.

And as the virus hammers these countries, its victims are younger than those in the US and Europe where ~70% of the people who die from the virus are over 75 years old. In contrast, just 12% of COVID-19 deaths in India, and 17% in Mexico have been people over 75.  In these countries, it is mostly people in their 40s and 50s who are dying from the disease.

There are many possible reasons for the change in these mortality statistics, including different demographics and health care availability. But, it also raises the scary specter that the virulence of the virus could be changing. The bottom line is that younger people cannot be complacent about it.

The virus is an opportunist. It will have its will with whoever is most available.