Making Sense of Medical Science (MSMS)

Shortly after Thanksgiving, I wrote in these pages how the post-turkey surge moved COVID-19 to the top cause of death in the US. I reported that the disease was killing more than 14,000 people a week, above the ~12,000 killed weekly by the former top killers, heart disease and cancer.

Grim.

It is getting grimmer: Now the CDC estimates that 92,000 people will die from the disease in the next three weeks. That is almost 31,000 deaths a week, more than double the death rate in early December. And, a study just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported that the average life expectancy in the US in 2020, dropped by more than a year. The study was conducted by researchers from Princeton and the University of Southern California using data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

If the pandemic didn’t take place, the study authors note that a person born in 2020 would, on average, live to about 79 years. The virus shaved almost 1.22 years off of that average life span. Black and Latino populations were projected to suffer significantly greater declines in life expectancy compared to White populations.  Reduced life expectancy among minorities was projected to be about triple that for White populations: life expectancy is projected to be 0.73 years lower for the White population, 2.26 years lower for the Black population, and 3.28 years lower for Latinos.

While 400,000 deaths is very tragic, it is a mere drop in the bucket compared to the many more COVID-19 patients who suffer long term, or even permanent morbidity. More on that later.

Shifting Topics: From June to November, Public Health England, tested thousands of healthcare workers in the UK. They reported that out of 6,614 healthcare workers who tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies, there were 44 reinfections. That is a good rate of protection against reinfection, but the reinfection rate still is surprisingly high.

This means that even though you had the virus or even were vaccinated, you might still be able to pass it on. What should you do?

• Still get the shot.
• Still mask up.
• Still socially distance.
• Still wash your hands.

In other words, be a good neighbor.

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